房地产周期及对宏观经济的影响研究

发布时间：2019-03-09 14:07

【摘要】：本文首先通过研究国内外房地产市场的发展,尤其是美国、日本房地产市场的发展趋势和周期,发现影响国外房地产市场发展的一些因素,比如金融、人口、城市化等因素。一些因素比如城市化、人口等作为外生因素决定了房地产的长期发展趋势,但货币金融、政策、经济波动等因素又在一定程度上使得房地产发展在某一阶段偏离了固有的发展趋势。之后,本文结合我国的实际情况,具体讨论了货币对房地产市场的影响,提出融资模式在房地产高速发展阶段的不同所形成的货币供给问题。之后结合中国特色的土地制度,本文揭示了地方政府作为最大的土地垄断者,加上“招拍挂”的模式,既是市场参与者又是市场规则制定者,严重破坏了房地产市场的市场秩序,推高了地价,进一步推高了房价。根据房地产对经济的影响分析,本文得出房地产投资通过乘数-加速效应先导性影响经济波动。房地产行业资本密集和大体量的特点,导致金融波动,货币超发,引起通胀。此外,作为房地产行业高速发展的伴生产物——高房价,已经在很多领域影响者实体经济的运行和居民的生活,造成严重的社会问题。最后,通过实证,本文进一步解释了房地产开发投资、货币和经济增长之间的动态关系。本文的研究也发现房地产开发投资在解释货币与经济增长原因中仍具有很强的解释作用。
[Abstract]:Firstly, this paper studies the development of real estate market at home and abroad, especially the development trend and cycle of real estate market in America and Japan, and finds out some factors affecting the development of foreign real estate market, such as finance, population, urbanization and so on. Some factors, such as urbanization and population, as exogenous factors, determine the long-term development trend of real estate, but monetary, financial, and policy, The economic fluctuation and other factors make the real estate development deviate from the inherent development trend in a certain stage. After that, this paper discusses the influence of money on the real estate market, and puts forward the money supply problem formed by the different financing mode in the high-speed development stage of real estate. Then combining with the land system with Chinese characteristics, this paper reveals that the local government, as the largest land monopolist, plus the mode of "bidding and hanging up", is both a market participant and a market rule-maker, and that the local government is not only the market participant but also the market rule-maker. Seriously damaged the market order of the real estate market, pushed up the land price, further pushed up the housing price. According to the analysis of the influence of real estate on economy, this paper draws a conclusion that real estate investment can influence economic fluctuation through multiplier-acceleration effect. Real estate industry capital-intensive and large characteristics, leading to financial volatility, currency overshoot, leading to inflation. In addition, as the accompanying product of the rapid development of the real estate industry, high house prices have affected the operation of the real economy and the lives of the residents in many fields, resulting in serious social problems. Finally, through empirical analysis, this paper further explains the dynamic relationship between real estate development investment, money and economic growth. This paper also finds that real estate development investment in explaining the reasons for money and economic growth is still very strong explanation.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F124

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