宁波海域船舶溢油事故应急决策研究

发布时间：2018-04-16 02:11

本文选题：溢油 + 层次分析法　；参考：《宁波大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：由于大规模的石油污染对海洋生态环境和社会都具有极大地损害性，以及海上石油复杂的物化特性变化过程，使得海上船舶石油污染成为当今海洋环境工作者的一项重要研究方向。本文通过分析和研究海上船舶溢油污染案例并结合现有的研究成果，对溢油损害影响因素进行了分析和归类，，得出了影响海上溢油损害影响的相关因素结构图。再结构图的基础上构建了海上船舶溢油事故损害程度评价指标体系。运用层次分析法计算了各影响因子的权重。并在此研究的基础上进行了案例检验。通过分析与溢油损害程度有关的影响因子，确定了包括溢油量、油品、环境情况、溢油海域情况、溢油预防与预警能力、溢油应急反应与处置能力、灾后恢复能力等七个方面的一级影响因子。并在这些一级影响因子之下确立了若干个二级影响因子，包括：风、气温、水温、潮流、浪、涌、能见度、粘度、挥发性、比重、溶解度、毒性、持久性、风化程度、离岸距离、地区类别、沿岸地貌、法律与预案编制、监测与预警、应急中心的管理机构、培训演习及安全普及、应急系统、专业队伍及志愿者、现场指挥与协调、通讯与控制、规划与后勤管理、后期处理、生态恢复及资金支持。在得出各指标的权重之后，对其中的不易进行计算得指标进行了优化处理，形成了新的便于测算的二级评价指标体系。本文最后以宁波海域发生的十起船舶溢油事故为研究对象。运用建立的方法体系，完成了对宁波海域船舶溢油事故损害程度的现状分析与评价。一旦发生海上船舶溢油事故，可以较为迅速的对事故损害程度进行等级确定，并进而确定相应的溢油应急对策。
[Abstract]:Because the large-scale oil pollution has great damage to the marine ecological environment and the society, and the complex physical and chemical characteristics of offshore oil change process,The oil pollution of marine ships has become an important research direction for marine environmental workers.By analyzing and studying the cases of oil spill pollution of ships on the sea and combining with the existing research results, this paper analyzes and classifies the influencing factors of oil spill damage, and obtains the relevant factor structure diagram of the influence of oil spill damage on the sea.On the basis of the structure chart, the evaluation index system of oil spill damage degree of marine ships is constructed.The weight of each influence factor is calculated by AHP.And on the basis of this study, a case study was carried out.By analyzing the influence factors related to the degree of oil spill damage, it is determined that the oil spill amount, oil product, environmental situation, oil spill sea area situation, oil spill prevention and early warning capability, oil spill emergency response and disposal capacity,Disaster recovery ability and other seven factors.A number of secondary influence factors have been established under these first-order influence factors, including: wind, temperature, water temperature, tidal current, surge, visibility, viscosity, volatility, specific gravity, solubility, toxicity, persistence, weathering degree,Offshore distance, area category, coastal topography, law and plan preparation, monitoring and early warning, emergency management, training exercises and safety popularization, emergency response systems, professional teams and volunteers, field command and coordination, communications and control,Planning and logistics management, post-processing, ecological restoration and financial support.After getting the weight of each index, the index which is not easy to be calculated is optimized, and a new two-level evaluation index system is formed, which is easy to measure.At the end of this paper, ten oil spill accidents occurred in Ningbo sea area are taken as the research object.Using the established method system, the present situation analysis and evaluation of the damage degree of oil spill accident of ships in Ningbo sea area are completed.Once the oil spill accident occurs, the damage degree of the accident can be determined quickly, and then the corresponding emergency countermeasures can be determined.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U698.7

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