基于不良天气因素影响下山区高速公路事故多发点鉴别

发布时间：2018-06-16 12:14

本文选题：山区高速公路 + 交通事故　；参考：《长安大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国高速公路网的迅速发展，高速公路的通行安全问题受到了人们的普遍关注。山区高速公路由于受到地质情况、道路线形的限制，再加上不利气候因素的影响，，安全问题也日益突出。论文依据大广高速泰赣段1853起事故统计数据，对山区高速公路事故多发点鉴别及其成因分析开展了研究工作。论文首先对不利气候等因素对山区高速公路安全事故的影响进行了分析，主要针对因不利气候条件下道路抗滑性和能见度的降低这两方面对交通事故的发生造成的影响进行分析与总结，给出了改善措施。论文在对传统的交通事故多发点的甄别方法分析比较的基础上，构建了基于最小二乘法的变点分析方法，运用4种传统鉴别方法和变点分析法对泰赣高速研究路段事故多发点进行了甄别分析，判别出大广高速泰赣研究路段K2951 K3045段的事故多发点，聚类为10个事故多发路段群。并根据计算结果将变点分析法与传统甄别方法进行了比较，揭示了变点分析方法的优势。论文分析了雨、雪、雾等不良天气条件对道路交通安全的影响机理，并提出了对应于雾天环境下的山区高速公路管理及预警系统的建立，以及安全设施设置。并简要探讨了我国目前山区高速道路安全审计发展的现状。本研究相关成果可为山区高速公路的设计与运营管理提供一定技术借鉴，对平原区等其它类型高速公路的安全保障有同样的参考作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of highway network in China, people pay more attention to the safety of expressway. Due to the geological conditions, road alignment restrictions and adverse climatic factors, the safety problems of mountain expressway are increasingly prominent. Based on the statistical data of 1853 accidents in Tai-Gan section of Daguang Expressway, this paper studies the identification of accident prone sites and the analysis of their causes. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence of adverse weather factors on highway safety accidents in mountainous areas. This paper analyzes and summarizes the influence of road skid resistance and visibility reduction on the occurrence of traffic accidents under adverse weather conditions, and puts forward some improvement measures. Based on the analysis and comparison of the traditional identification methods of traffic accident prone points, this paper constructs a new method of variable point analysis based on the least square method. By using four traditional identification methods and variation point analysis method, the accident prone sites in Tai-Gan expressway research sections were identified and analyzed, and the accident prone sites in K2951 / K3045 section of Tai-Gan research section were identified, which were clustered into 10 accident prone sections. According to the calculation results, the method of change point analysis is compared with the traditional discriminating method, and the advantages of the method are revealed. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of bad weather conditions such as rain, snow and fog on road traffic safety, and puts forward the establishment of highway management and early warning system in mountain area corresponding to the fog environment, as well as the setting up of safety facilities. The present situation of highway safety audit in mountainous area is briefly discussed. The related results of this study can provide some technical reference for the design and operation management of expressway in mountainous area, and have the same reference function for the safety guarantee of other types of highway in plain area.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31

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