中国温带地区不同界限温度下农业热量资源的时空演变

发布时间：2018-09-05 13:40

【摘要】：受全球气候变暖影响,农业生产面临较大风险,研究农业热量资源的时空演变对农业生态环境、作物布局和种植制度等具有重要意义。本研究利用中国温带地区及外延200km范围内840个气象站点1960—2015年逐日气温资料,采用气象插值软件ANUSPLIN空间插值,基于偏差法计算了格点尺度稳定通过不同界限温度(≥0℃、5℃、10℃、15℃和20℃)的起止日期、持续日数和积温,综合分析了气候变化背景下农业热量资源的时空格局及不同时段一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区的变化。结果表明:温带地区均呈现出初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数和积温增加的趋势,≥15℃的热量资源变幅最大;不同界限温度初日自南向北推迟,终日提前、持续日数和积温逐渐减小。起止日期和积温年代距平从1990年开始正负转变,1960—1980年与2000年以后差异显著;寒温带持续日数和积温低值区域减少、中温带和暖温带高值范围增大。时段Ⅱ(1990—2015年)温带地区一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区相比时段Ⅰ(1960—1989年)存在不同程度北扩。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of global warming, agricultural production is facing great risks. It is important to study the temporal and spatial evolution of agricultural heat resources for agricultural ecological environment, crop distribution and planting system. Based on ANUSPLIN spatial interpolation, the starting and ending dates, persistent days and accumulated temperatures of grid-scale stabilization through different boundary temperatures ((> 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20) were calculated by deviation method. The spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural heat resources under the background of climate change and the two cropping systems of one year in different periods, the plantable areas of winter wheat and spring maize were comprehensively analyzed. The results show that all temperate zones show the trend of early date ahead, all day delayed, persistent days and accumulated temperature increased, and the range of heat resources (> 15) is the largest; the beginning date of different boundary temperatures is delayed from south to north, the day ahead, the persistent days and accumulated temperature decrease gradually. There was a significant difference between 1980 and 2000. The cold-temperate zone continued to decrease in the number of days and the area with low accumulated temperature, and the range of high values in the middle and warm temperate zones increased.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41475104);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41401048) 国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506016)
【分类号】：S162.3

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