重庆经济-资源-环境发展的系统动力学分析及不同情景模拟

发布时间：2018-04-10 17:24

本文选题：可持续发展 + 系统动力学　；参考：《重庆师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年03期

【摘要】：经济-资源-环境的协调发展是可持续发展的关键环节,城市经济的发展越来越多地受到资源和环境方面的限制,如何摆脱当前的困境,实现经济资源环境的可持续发展,是当前亟需解决的问题。研究城市经济-资源-环境可持续发展的内涵及框架,利用系统动力学的原理和方法,以重庆为例,通过道格拉斯生产函数将资源、环境、技术等子系统与GDP子系统联系起来,构建了经济-资源-环境系统动力学模型处理由于城市资源耗尽和环境恶化所限制的经济增长问题,同时设定了基础、资源、环境、技术和经济5个情景,对不同情景模拟结果进行了比较分析。结果表明:单独改变系统中的子系统不能实现重庆的可持续发展,转变经济发展模式才是重庆可持续发展的优化发展方案。
[Abstract]:The coordinated development of economy, resources and environment is the key link of sustainable development. The development of urban economy is more and more restricted by resources and environment. How to get rid of the current predicament and realize the sustainable development of economic resources and environment,Is the current urgent need to solve the problem.This paper studies the connotation and framework of the sustainable development of urban economy, resources and environment. By using the principle and method of system dynamics, taking Chongqing as an example, the subsystems of resources, environment and technology are connected with the GDP subsystem by Douglas production function.The dynamic model of economic-resources-environment system is constructed to deal with the problem of economic growth, which is limited by the depletion of urban resources and the deterioration of the environment. At the same time, five scenarios of basic, resource, environment, technology and economy are set up.The results of different scenarios are compared and analyzed.The results show that changing the subsystem of the system alone can not realize the sustainable development of Chongqing, and changing the mode of economic development is the optimal development plan of Chongqing sustainable development.
【作者单位】：重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院;三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重庆市重点实验室;三峡生态环境遥感研究所;重庆交通大学河海学院;贵州科学院山地资源研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.41201546;No.41261038) 国家十二五科技支撑计划专题(No.2011BAC02B02);国家十二五科技支撑计划项目(No.2012BAJ25B09) 重庆市自然科学基金(No.cstc2012jjA20010)
【分类号】：N941.3;F127;F205;X22

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