水资源承载力综合评价的变权灰色关联模型

发布时间：2018-04-14 07:04

  本文选题：水资源评价 + 水资源承载力　； 参考：《节水灌溉》2014年03期

【摘要】：以灰色系统理论为基础,建立变权灰色关联模型评价区域水资源承载力。在阐述水资源承载力概念的基础上,构建三江平原水资源承载力评价指标体系,确定指标等级标准。将待评价区域的实测指标数列和等级标准数列分别作为比较数列和参考数列,由灰色关联评价理论,计算比较数列与参考数列的联系系数,由变权法确定权重,计算联系度,根据最大关联度原则判断水资源承载力的等级。将此模型应用于三江平原,评价三江平原8个区域的水资源承载力状况,结果表明:2008年三江平原水资源承载力等级为Ⅲ级,其中鸡西市、鹤岗市、双鸭山市、佳木斯市和依兰县属于第Ⅲ等级,水资源承载力处于中等水平,水资源与社会经济发展处于平衡状态;七台河市属于Ⅱ级,水资源承载力为弱无压力状态;穆棱市属于Ⅰ级,水资源承载力为强无压力状态。与投影寻踪评价模型对比分析,评价结果基本一致,表明模型有效可行,成果合理可靠。建立变权灰色关联评价模型,以期为水资源承载力评价提供一种实用可行的评价模型。
[Abstract]:Based on the grey system theory, a variable weight grey relational model is established to evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity.On the basis of expounding the concept of water resources carrying capacity, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Sanjiang Plain is constructed, and the index grade standard is determined.The measured index series and grade standard series in the area to be evaluated are regarded as comparison series and reference sequence respectively. The relation coefficient between comparison sequence and reference sequence is calculated by grey relational evaluation theory, and the weight is determined by variable weight method, and the connection degree is calculated.The grade of water resources carrying capacity is judged according to the principle of maximum correlation degree.The model was applied to Sanjiang Plain to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in eight regions of Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Sanjiang Plain in 2008 was grade 鈪，

本文编号：1748211