绿洲城市水资源配置模拟和优化

发布时间：2018-04-17 22:41

本文选题：水资源 + 优化配置　；参考：《人民黄河》2014年07期

【摘要】：从水资源与城市化相互影响的系统角度,基于反馈回路构建系统动力学模型,以乌鲁木齐市为例,设定5种水资源配置方案,模拟预测2012—2030年城市发展指标值和生产、生活、生态用水量及缺水程度等,根据水资源利用与城市化发展综合效益最大化的原则确定最优方案。结果表明:方案5能扭转水资源与城市化系统恶化趋势,实现水资源、环境和经济社会效益最大化。该方案通过调水、节水和调低城市发展速度,在2013年实现缺水程度为0,且第一产业用水比例递减,生态用水比例递增,废污水排放量较小,2030年总产值可达24751.74亿元,三次产业结构比例为0.47∶29.49∶70.04,总人口为467.78万,城镇化率为97%,用水总量为18.54亿m3。提出应加强城市化进程中经济增速控制和产业结构调整,以适应水资源配置。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the interaction between water resources and urbanization, the system dynamics model is constructed based on feedback loop. Taking Urumqi as an example, five water resources allocation schemes are set up to simulate and forecast the urban development index value, production and life in 2012-2030.According to the principle of maximizing the comprehensive benefit of water resources utilization and urbanization development, the optimal scheme is determined.The results show that scenario 5 can reverse the deterioration trend of water resources and urbanization system and maximize water resources, environment and economic and social benefits.By transferring water, saving water and lowering the speed of urban development, the project can realize the degree of water shortage is zero in 2013, and the proportion of primary industry water is decreasing, the proportion of ecological water is increasing, the discharge of waste water is relatively small, and the total output value can reach 2.475174 trillion yuan in 2030.The ratio of three industrial structure is 0.47: 29.4970.04, the total population is 4.6778 million, the urbanization rate is 97 and the total water consumption is 1.854 billion m3.It is suggested that the control of economic growth rate and the adjustment of industrial structure should be strengthened in the process of urbanization in order to adapt to the allocation of water resources.
【作者单位】：新疆财经大学统计与信息学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71163039) 新疆维吾尔自治区研究生教育创新计划重点科研项目(XJGRI2013142) 2013年新疆财经大学研究生科研项目(13cdyjs020)
【分类号】：TV213.4

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