北京市水资源利用建模分析研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 02:12

本文选题：加权组合模型 + 用水量　；参考：《数学的实践与认识》2014年24期

【摘要】：以北京市为例,分别应用无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型和非线性模型对北京市2001年-2010年的用水量进行了建模,利用最优化方法,计算了上述两种模型的最优组合模型,通过三种模型分别计算了北京市2001年-2010年的水资源利用量,并与北京市2001年-2010年的实际用水量进行了对比,采用精度检验方法,分别对无偏灰色模型,非线性模型和组合模型进行了精度检验,计算结果表明,加权组合模型是三种模型中精度最高的模型,通过组合模型计算得出的用水量值与实际水资源利用量相比误差最小,由此得出,可以利用组合模型对北京市未来的水资源利用量进行预测,预测结果可为其他相关研究提供参考.
[Abstract]:Taking Beijing as an example, the water consumption of Beijing from 2001 to 2010 is modeled by using the unbiased grey GM1 (1) model and the nonlinear model, and the optimal combination model of the above two models is calculated by using the optimization method.The utilization of water resources in Beijing from 2001 to 2010 was calculated by three kinds of models, and compared with the actual water consumption of Beijing from 2001 to 2010.The accuracy of the nonlinear model and the combined model is tested. The results show that the weighted combined model is the most accurate of the three models, and the water consumption calculated by the combined model has the smallest error compared with the actual water resource utilization.It is concluded that the combined model can be used to predict the future utilization of water resources in Beijing, and the prediction results can be used as a reference for other related studies.
【作者单位】：温州医科大学信息与工程学院;中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院;
【分类号】：TV213

【参考文献】