人口流动、婚姻稳定性与生育研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 01:14

  本文选题：人口流动　切入点：婚姻稳定性　出处：《浙江大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国离婚率逐年递增,生育水平迅速下降。其中,人口流动特别是农村人口的大规模流动,被认为是影响婚姻稳定性和生育率的重要因素之一。相关研究大多表明,流动人口家庭的离婚率高于非流动家庭,而生育率低于非流动家庭。这些文献一般围绕着“婚姻稳定性-人口流动效应”或“生育率-人口流动效应”的测量展开,较少对两者之间因果关系的形成和传导机制进行分析和识别,也缺乏对生育率与婚姻稳定性之间联系的考虑。由于婚姻稳定性与生育率之间本身存在某种程度的相关性,单独分析人口流动与婚姻稳定性或生育水平的关系都是片面的。本文的创新之处,在于试图弥补现有研究的不足,尝试利用经济学研究方法来系统分析人口流动对婚姻稳定性与生育率的影响。本文的主要研究任务和目标是,剖析人口流动影响婚姻和生育决策的微观机制,以及人口流动对婚姻稳定性与生育率相关性影响的机理,加深我们对“家庭婚育-人口流动”问题的认识。本文对Junichiro Ishida的离婚模型进行拓展,构建起一个包含多参数的婚姻稳定模型,分析了人口流动在社会评价、再婚市场规模、匹配概率和搜寻成本等方面对婚姻稳定性影响的机制以及这些机制产生的条件,并通过比较分析,总结得出不同人口流动方式影响婚姻稳定性的结果。同时,本文还根据Becker的生育成本效用理论,建立起一个包含生育意愿等参数的生育模型,直观呈现了工资率、生育投入价格、生育意愿与生育率之间的联系和影响机制。在将生育意愿内生化后,分析得出了人口流动使得工资和生育投入价格升高,导致生育意愿下降,而生育率受生育意愿下降、工资和生育投入价格上升等因素影响,也随之降低。考虑到婚姻稳定性与生育率之间存在的相关性,本文还引入婚姻稳定性参数,对生育模型进行了修订和拓展。在婚姻稳定性内生的情况下,婚姻稳定性与生育率存在一个稳定的均衡解。当婚姻稳定性偏离均衡状态,生育决策产生反馈(或自发调节)效应,即通过增加生育数量提高婚姻稳定性,生育率也维持在原来的水平。通过分析可得,人口流动对均衡的影响存在两种机制,一方面,人口流动降低生育意愿,生育的调节机制失效；另一方面,人口流动使得婚姻稳定性下降,进而降低生育率。在这两种机制的共同传导下,流动人口的均衡生育水平大大降低。在具体的实证分析中,本文利用CGSS受访者对两性关系的看法来测量婚姻稳定性。结论表明,两性观念越开放,婚姻稳定性越低。人口流动与两性观念交互项对生育率影响的回归结果显示,农村非流动人口的两性观念对生育率没有影响,而流动人口的两性观念对生育率具有显著影响。总体上,在当前人口老龄化加速和全面放开二孩政策的背景下,将入口流动对婚姻稳定性和生育率的影响置于统一框架下进行研究,是一个有益的尝试,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's divorce rate is increasing year by year, rapid decline in fertility level. Among them, the population flow especially the large-scale flow of the rural population, is considered to be one of the important factors affecting the stability of marriage and fertility. Most researches show that the floating population family divorce rate higher than non migrant families, while the birth rate is lower than the non flow family. These literature generally around the "measuring stability of marriage - population effect" or "fertility rate - the population flow effect", less on the formation of the causal relationship between the two and the conduction mechanism analysis and recognition, but also the lack of relationship between fertility and marital stability considerations. Due to the stability of marriage and family the rate itself has some degree of correlation, the relationship between individual analysis of population mobility and the stability of marriage or family level are one-sided. The innovation of this paper, Is trying to compensate for the lack of existing research, trying to analysis the influence of population floating on the stability of marriage and fertility in the use of research methods in economics. The main research tasks and goals, analyze the effect of population mobility mechanism of marriage and childbearing decisions, and population migration on marital stability and fertility influence mechanism, deepen our understanding of "family marriage - population flow problem. The model of Junichiro Ishida divorce to expand, build a stable marriage model with multi parameters analysis, evaluation of population flow in the society, remarriage market scale, influence mechanism of matching probability and search cost and other aspects of marriage and stability conditions of these mechanisms and, through the comparative analysis, summarizes the flow of different population affect marital stability results. At the same time, this paper also root According to the fertility cost utility theory of Becker, establishes a growth model including fertility desire and other parameters, presents intuitive wage rates, fertility input prices, link between fertility and fertility intention and influence mechanism. The endogenous fertility desire, analysis of the population flow makes wages and input prices increased growth that lead to fertility decline, while the birth rate by the fertility decline, wages and fertility, increasing input prices and other factors, are also reduced. Considering the correlation between the stability of marriage and fertility, this paper also introduced the marriage stability parameters on the growth model was revised and expanded. In the case of endogenous marriage stability the stability of marriage and fertility, there is a stable equilibrium solution. When the deviation from the equilibrium state of marital stability, family decision feedback (or spontaneous adjustment) effect, namely by increasing The number of births to improve the stability of marriage, the birth rate is maintained at the original level. Through the analysis, there are two kinds of migration mechanism of equilibrium on the one hand, the population flow reduced fertility desire, the failure mechanism of fertility; on the other hand, the population flow makes marriage stability decreases, thereby reducing the fertility rate in common. The two conduction mechanism, equilibrium fertility level of the floating population is greatly reduced. In the empirical analysis, this paper views on relationships to measure marital stability by CGSS. The conclusion shows that the respondents, two of the concept of marriage more open, the lower the stability. The results of population mobility and the concept of gender interaction regression effect on fertility the rate of display, rural non sexual concept of floating population on fertility rate has no effect, and the sexual concept of floating population on fertility rate has a significant impact. On the whole, in the current people Under the background of accelerated and comprehensive liberalization of the two child policy, it is a useful attempt to study the impact of entry flow on marital stability and fertility rate under a unified framework, which has certain theoretical and practical significance.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D669.1
，

本文编号：1617672