从长期稳定到动荡起伏——日本社会心理与安倍内阁支持率变化
发布时间:2018-05-09 17:39
本文选题:日本政治 + 安倍内阁 ; 参考:《现代国际关系》2017年10期
【摘要】:2017年6~7月间,安倍内阁支持率急速下跌,与2012年以来长期稳定的局面形成鲜明对比。安倍支持率的稳定,源于民众对其的消极支持,以及对安保法案等焦点事件以及金钱丑闻等的消极反对。而消极反对与消极支持,则源于民众的"习得性无助"、"安倍经济学"、投票选择机会成本大幅下降等诸多条件。安倍支持率的骤然下跌,并非上述条件发生变化,而是安倍傲慢、与民众离心离德导致人格等"中心形象"的崩塌。在支持率暂时回稳的背景下,安倍利用反对党内讧之机提前解散众议院举行大选,以实现其执政至2020年东京奥运的目标。选举的胜利并不足以表明其完全摆脱负面影响,安倍将利用朝鲜半岛危机等,展现其"善于维护日本安全"的一面,谋求重构"中心形象",进一步提升支持率以稳定执政地位。
[Abstract]:Between June and July 2017, Abe's cabinet ratings plummeted, in sharp contrast to the long-term stability since 2012. The stability of Abe's approval rating stems from negative public support for him, as well as negative opposition to focal issues such as the security bill and money scandals. Negative opposition and negative support are due to people's "learned helplessness", "Abenomics", and a sharp drop in the opportunity cost of voting and other conditions. The sharp drop in Mr Abe's approval ratings is not a change in these conditions, but the collapse of his "central image", such as personality, as he is arrogant and alienated from the public. Amid a temporary stabilisation of his approval ratings, Mr Abe has used opposition infighting to dissolve the House of Representatives for a general election ahead of time to meet his goal of taking office until the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The election victory is not enough to show that he is completely free from the negative influence. Abe will use the Korean Peninsula crisis to show his "good at Japanese security" side, seek to reconstruct the "central image" and further enhance his approval rating to stabilize his ruling position.
【作者单位】: 中国现代国际关系研究院日本研究所;
【分类号】:D731.3
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