社会保障、居民消费与经济发展关系研究
发布时间：2018-09-01 20:51
【摘要】：本文基于向量自回归模型研究我国社会保障与经济发展之间的关系,通过引入中间因素—居民消费来研究社会保障与经济发展之间的相互作用机制。本文首先运用层次分析法分别算出经济发展综合指标和社会保障综合指标的各子指标的权重,然后算出综合指标。最后通过单位根检验、构建向量自回归模型、确定最优滞后阶数、模型平稳性检验、协整检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等流程研究社会保障、居民消费与经济发展三者之间的相互关系。研究发现:社会保障、居民消费、经济发展存在着紧密的关系,从总体上讲三者之间是相互作用、相互促进的。经济发展是基础,它决定着居民消费水平的提升,决定着社会保障事业的产生和发展;同时,社会保障事业的发展对提高居民消费水平、促进经济发展也有着重要的意义;社会保障事业对居民消费水平与经济发展具有双重作用。目前,由于我国社会保障事业还处于成长阶段,没有显现出来对我国经济发展的挤出效应,对我国经济发展的促进效应开始显现并逐渐提高,但促进效应不够显著。从实证结果可以看出社会保障对经济发展的抑制作用要小于社会保障对经济发展的促进作用。所以,提高我国财政社保支出水平是促进我国经济健康发展的可行选择。
[Abstract]:Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the relationship between social security and economic development in China, and studies the interaction mechanism between social security and economic development by introducing the intermediate factor-resident consumption. In this paper, the weight of the economic development index and the social security index are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the comprehensive index is calculated. Finally, through the unit root test, build the vector autoregressive model, determine the optimal lag order, model stability test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition and other processes to study social security. The relationship between resident consumption and economic development. It is found that there are close relations among social security, resident consumption and economic development. Economic development is the foundation, which determines the improvement of the consumption level of the residents and the emergence and development of the social security undertakings, at the same time, the development of the social security undertakings plays an important role in improving the consumption level of the residents and promoting the economic development. The social security enterprise has the dual function to the resident consumption level and the economic development. At present, because the social security in our country is still in the growing stage, it does not show the crowding out effect to our country's economic development, and the promoting effect to our country's economic development begins to appear and increases gradually, but the promoting effect is not obvious enough. From the empirical results, we can see that the inhibitory effect of social security on economic development is smaller than that of social security on economic development. Therefore, it is a feasible choice to promote the healthy development of our economy by raising the expenditure level of our country's finance and social security.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D632.1;F126.1;F124
[Abstract]:Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the relationship between social security and economic development in China, and studies the interaction mechanism between social security and economic development by introducing the intermediate factor-resident consumption. In this paper, the weight of the economic development index and the social security index are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the comprehensive index is calculated. Finally, through the unit root test, build the vector autoregressive model, determine the optimal lag order, model stability test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition and other processes to study social security. The relationship between resident consumption and economic development. It is found that there are close relations among social security, resident consumption and economic development. Economic development is the foundation, which determines the improvement of the consumption level of the residents and the emergence and development of the social security undertakings, at the same time, the development of the social security undertakings plays an important role in improving the consumption level of the residents and promoting the economic development. The social security enterprise has the dual function to the resident consumption level and the economic development. At present, because the social security in our country is still in the growing stage, it does not show the crowding out effect to our country's economic development, and the promoting effect to our country's economic development begins to appear and increases gradually, but the promoting effect is not obvious enough. From the empirical results, we can see that the inhibitory effect of social security on economic development is smaller than that of social security on economic development. Therefore, it is a feasible choice to promote the healthy development of our economy by raising the expenditure level of our country's finance and social security.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D632.1;F126.1;F124
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