养老保险、家庭养老对我国居民生育意愿的影响
发布时间：2018-10-31 19:02
【摘要】：近年来我国城乡的生育意愿处于持续萎缩中,第五次及第六次人口普查数据显示,我国的总和生育率分别为1.22和1.18,生育率低已成我国经济、社会发展的重大隐患。受传统“养儿防老”和“多子多福”观念的影响,养老一直是我国居民选择生育的主要动机之一。当前我国养老方式主要有依靠子女的家庭养老和依靠养老保险制度的社会养老,二者对生育意愿的影响受到学界的广泛关注本文基于2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,利用Logit模型与泊松回归模型,将生意意愿分为是否生育和生育数量两个方面,实证分析了养老保险、家庭养老对我国居民生育意愿的影响。研究发现,养老保险和家庭养老不但提高了我国居民选择生育的概率,同时还强化了我国居民多生育子女的意愿,但其作用效果存在性别差异。此外,本文还分析了养老保险与家庭养老交互对生育意愿的影响,发现养老保险强化了家庭养老对我国居民生育概率的正向影响。最后,为了验证上述研究结果的稳健性,本文分城乡来检验养老保险和家庭养老对生育意愿的影响。研究表明,不论是将生育意愿视为二分变量还是计数变量,户籍都具有显著影响,回归结果也具有稳健性。养老保险促进了城镇居民选择生育的概率和数量,但对于农村的居民没有显著影响。与之相对的是,家庭养老对我国农村居民选择生育的意愿和数量有明显的强化作用,但对于城镇居民的影响并不显著。本文的研究结果具有重要的政策启示,二胎政策并非鼓励人口生育的唯一途径,适当提高养老保险待遇可以间接调控人口数量,实现从政策控制生育到社保覆盖下的自愿适度生育,此外,在实现社会保障城乡均衡发展的同时,应该促使养老保险和家庭养老形成良性互补,以消除居民的养老恐慌和忧虑,从而有助于居民做出合理的生育决策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the fertility willingness of China's urban and rural areas is in a continuous decline. The data of the fifth and sixth population censuses show that the total fertility rate is 1.22 and 1.18, respectively. The low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger for the economic and social development of our country. Influenced by the traditional concepts of "raising children and preventing old age" and "having more children and more happiness", old-age support has always been one of the main motivations for Chinese residents to choose to have children. At present, the main ways of providing for the aged in our country are the family old-age care based on children and the social old-age pension based on the old-age insurance system. The influence of these two methods on the desire to have children has attracted extensive attention in the academic circles. This paper is based on the (CGSS) data of China Comprehensive Social Survey in 2013. By using Logit model and Poisson regression model, this paper divides the business intention into two aspects: whether or not to have children and the number of births, and analyzes empirically the influence of pension insurance and family pension on the fertility intention of Chinese residents. It is found that old-age insurance and family old-age insurance not only increase the probability of Chinese residents to choose to have children, but also strengthen the willingness of Chinese residents to have more children, but the effect is different between sexes. In addition, this paper also analyzes the influence of the interaction between the family pension and the family pension on the fertility intention, and finds that the pension insurance strengthens the positive influence of the family pension on the fertility probability of the residents in our country. Finally, in order to verify the robustness of the above research results, this paper examines the effects of old-age insurance and family pension on fertility intention in urban and rural areas. The study shows that whether the fertility intention is regarded as a binary variable or a counting variable, the household registration has a significant impact, and the regression results are also robust. Pension insurance promotes the probability and quantity of urban residents' choice of fertility, but has no significant effect on rural residents. On the other hand, the family pension plays a significant role in strengthening the willingness and number of rural residents to choose to have children, but the effect on urban residents is not significant. The results of this paper have important policy implications. The policy of second child is not the only way to encourage the population to have children. To realize voluntary and moderate childbearing from policy control to social security coverage. In addition, while realizing the balanced development of social security in urban and rural areas, we should promote the formation of benign complementarities between old-age insurance and family old-age care, so as to eliminate the residents' panic and anxiety in providing for the aged. This will help residents to make reasonable reproductive decisions.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D669.6;F842.67
[Abstract]:In recent years, the fertility willingness of China's urban and rural areas is in a continuous decline. The data of the fifth and sixth population censuses show that the total fertility rate is 1.22 and 1.18, respectively. The low fertility rate has become a major hidden danger for the economic and social development of our country. Influenced by the traditional concepts of "raising children and preventing old age" and "having more children and more happiness", old-age support has always been one of the main motivations for Chinese residents to choose to have children. At present, the main ways of providing for the aged in our country are the family old-age care based on children and the social old-age pension based on the old-age insurance system. The influence of these two methods on the desire to have children has attracted extensive attention in the academic circles. This paper is based on the (CGSS) data of China Comprehensive Social Survey in 2013. By using Logit model and Poisson regression model, this paper divides the business intention into two aspects: whether or not to have children and the number of births, and analyzes empirically the influence of pension insurance and family pension on the fertility intention of Chinese residents. It is found that old-age insurance and family old-age insurance not only increase the probability of Chinese residents to choose to have children, but also strengthen the willingness of Chinese residents to have more children, but the effect is different between sexes. In addition, this paper also analyzes the influence of the interaction between the family pension and the family pension on the fertility intention, and finds that the pension insurance strengthens the positive influence of the family pension on the fertility probability of the residents in our country. Finally, in order to verify the robustness of the above research results, this paper examines the effects of old-age insurance and family pension on fertility intention in urban and rural areas. The study shows that whether the fertility intention is regarded as a binary variable or a counting variable, the household registration has a significant impact, and the regression results are also robust. Pension insurance promotes the probability and quantity of urban residents' choice of fertility, but has no significant effect on rural residents. On the other hand, the family pension plays a significant role in strengthening the willingness and number of rural residents to choose to have children, but the effect on urban residents is not significant. The results of this paper have important policy implications. The policy of second child is not the only way to encourage the population to have children. To realize voluntary and moderate childbearing from policy control to social security coverage. In addition, while realizing the balanced development of social security in urban and rural areas, we should promote the formation of benign complementarities between old-age insurance and family old-age care, so as to eliminate the residents' panic and anxiety in providing for the aged. This will help residents to make reasonable reproductive decisions.
【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D669.6;F842.67
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