规避南海的“修昔底德陷阱”——加勒比海历史经验的启示

发布时间：2018-04-03 21:43

本文选题：马汉　切入点：加勒比海　出处：《太平洋学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：19世纪末到20世纪初,美国实现了海上战略崛起,其在周边海域所经历的战略形势与中国今天在南海有相似之处,当时,战略家马汉对于美国周边海域特别是加勒比海的海权问题进行了深入研究,其中有值得中国借鉴的历史经验和战略智慧。美国海上崛起的理论需求是促使马汉思考加勒比海海权问题的内在推动力,而巴拿马运河开通则是加勒比海问题升温的重要外来刺激,英美间大国关系一度紧张,类似今天所论"修昔底德陷阱"。但是历史发展表明,美国顺利实现海上崛起,并未发生英美战争对决。当前中国面临的南海局势体现出一定的历史相似性,但是中国不会走上个世纪美国在加勒比海扩张霸权的老路,在规避风险和抓住机遇的同时中国需要周密决策,有效行动,走出自身海上崛起之路。
[Abstract]:From the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century, the United States realized the strategic rise of the sea. The strategic situation it experienced in the surrounding waters was similar to that of China in the South China Sea today. At that time,Mahan, a strategist, has made a deep study on the maritime power in the surrounding waters of the United States, especially in the Caribbean Sea, which is worthy of China's historical experience and strategic wisdom.The theoretical demand for the rise of the United States at sea is an internal driving force for Mahan to think about the issue of maritime power in the Caribbean Sea, while the opening of the Panama Canal is an important external stimulus to the warming of the Caribbean Sea issue. Relations between the Great Powers of the United States and the United States were once tense.Similar to today's "Thucydides Trap".However, historical development shows that the United States successfully realized the rise of the sea, there was no war between the United States and the United States.The current situation in the South China Sea that China is facing shows certain historical similarities, but China will not follow the old path of US hegemony in the Caribbean Sea in the last century. While avoiding risks and seizing opportunities, China needs careful decision-making and effective action.Walk out of their own way to rise at sea.
【作者单位】：上海社会科学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金2017年度重点项目“海洋政治问题研究”(17AZD014)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D822.371.2

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