认知资源限制对后见之明偏差大小的影响

发布时间：2018-03-05 20:55

本文选题：后见之明偏差　切入点：认知资源　出处：《宁波大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：后见之明偏差是指人们在事后看待结果时,会因记忆扭曲或对事情发生必然性的感知而过高估计自身预测能力的现象。鉴于后见之明偏差容易造成决策者在决策过程中产生过度自信和缺乏深谋远虑所带来的危害性,近年来研究者们逐渐从对其形成机制的研究转向对其影响因素的研究,希望能够找到减小后见之明偏差的方法。已有研究发现研究方法、年龄因素、个人特质、能力变量、反馈效价、自我关联性、情绪、专业知识等均会对后见之明偏差大小产生影响,但研究结论并不统一。其次,除反馈效价和自我关联性基于后见之明偏差的动机模型外,大多数影响因素并非从理论模型推导得出。鉴于此,本文基于记忆设计从后见之明偏差的认知模型出发,推理出认知资源可能会对先后见之明偏差的大小产生影响。因此,希望通过三个研究来探究认知资源限制对后见之明偏差大小的影响。研究一为探索性研究,旨在探究后见判断反应时与后见之明偏差大小是否存在相关性,即是否是后见之明偏差大小的一个潜在影响因素,并为研究二提供参考。研究二基于研究一的结果,通过操控后见判断反应时来间接调控被试的认知资源分配,探究认知资源限制对后见之明偏差大小的影响。研究三则通过给予认知负荷直接占用被试的认知资源来探究认知资源限制对后见之明偏差的影响大小。本研究获得主要结论可以概括为:认知资源限制增大后见之明偏差大小。具体体现在以下几点:(1)后见判断中用于回忆先见判断所花费的时间与后见之明偏差大小呈显著负相关。(2)通过操控后见判断反应时间接调控被试的认知资源发现,较之自由回忆,快速回忆增大后见之明偏差。(3)通过设置有/无认知负荷直接占用被试的认知资源发现,较之无认知负荷,认知负荷增大后见之明偏差。
[Abstract]:Backward bias is when people look at the results afterwards, A phenomenon in which one overestimates one's ability to predict due to distorted memory or perception of the inevitability of events. Given the danger of overconfidence and a lack of foresight on the part of decision makers in the decision-making process, In recent years, researchers have gradually shifted from the study of its formation mechanism to the study of its influencing factors, hoping to find a way to reduce the apparent deviation. Feedback titer, self-relevance, emotion and professional knowledge all have an effect on the size of the discernible bias, but the conclusions are not uniform. Secondly, except for the motivation model of feedback titer and self-relevance based on the second-sight bias, Most of the influencing factors are not derived from the theoretical model. In view of this, this paper infer that cognitive resources may have an effect on the magnitude of cognitive deviation based on the cognitive model of memory design. It is hoped to explore the effect of cognitive resource restriction on the size of aftersight bias through three studies. The first is an exploratory study, which aims to explore whether there is a correlation between the reaction time and the apparent bias. That is, whether it is a potential factor to influence the magnitude of the apparent deviation, and provide a reference for the second study. The second study, based on the results of study one, indirectly regulates the allocation of cognitive resources of the subjects by manipulating the reaction time. The third study explored the effect of cognitive resource restriction on the cognitive deviation by directly occupying the cognitive resources of the subjects. The main conclusion can be summarized as follows: the apparent deviation of cognitive resources is increased, which is reflected in the following points: 1) the time taken to recall the prior judgment is significantly negative to that of the latter. Correlation. 2) the cognitive resources of the subjects regulated by the reaction time after manipulation were found. Compared with the free recall, the obvious bias of rapid recall increased. 3) by setting up cognitive resources with or without cognitive load, we found that compared with no cognitive load, cognitive load increased and cognitive load increased.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：B842.1

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