新经济史视角下的阿根廷发展悖论—制度变迁与钟摆式发展

发布时间：2017-12-28 09:20

  本文关键词：新经济史视角下的阿根廷发展悖论—制度变迁与钟摆式发展　出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 阿根廷 钟摆式发展 断裂状社会 利益集团 民众主义 自由主义

【摘要】：探索经济长期稳定增长的基本机制是经济学中的重要课题。阿根廷为此提供了一个比较研究的范式。世界经济“大萧条”和“二战”是阿根廷发展的分水岭,此前阿根廷是一个欣欣向荣的富裕之邦,经济繁荣伴随着政治稳定;此后阿根廷却陷入钟摆式发展怪圈,20世纪最终成为阿根廷“失去的世纪”。是什么原因造成阿根廷这一发展悖论,学术界大致有文化决定论、依附论、政治危机、政策失误论等解答。通过考察阿根廷的发展路径,我们发现,阿根廷衰落的根源在于产权得不到政治制度保障。尽管私有产权和市场交易在建国之初就确立,但资源禀赋和殖民地传统使阿根廷产权以大地产为主,市场交易以直接融入世界经济体系的大宗农牧产品出口为主,这造成了阿根廷现代化进程中经济与政治发展的不平衡,影响了中产阶级的发育和现代制度的建立运行。随着现代化进程发展,阿根廷外来移民人数和经济实力有所增长,但农牧业寡头把持国家政治并排斥移民,造成政治权力和经济权利的割裂,加剧了统治危机。寡头政府试图通过普选将新兴中产阶层纳入政治中,却意外将底层民众带入政治生活,形成了劳工集团和农牧业出口集团二元对立的社会结构。殖民地遗留的考迪罗主义及其庇护关系使市民社会难以发展壮大,造成市民社会无力整合大量原子化的城市劳工,为民众主义提供了土壤。随着庇隆上台执政,其民众主义意识形态以及运动主义和职团主义模式更加剧了社会分裂和集团冲突,各集团的狭隘利益逐渐取代共容利益成为社会主导。高度政治化的社会中,各集团缺乏对基本制度共识,将“俘获”政府视为实现或维护集团利益的唯一途径,国家沦为操纵再分配的“掠夺之手”。“赢者通吃”的游戏规则使阿根廷出现政权更替危机,频繁动荡使弱小的中产阶级只能向军队寻求庇护。缺乏稳定预期使得大规模国有化或私有化、拒绝承认债务、滥发货币等短视行为成为统治者惯用“伎俩”,最终形成“流寇”政权轮番上台并大肆掠夺的困局。我们的研究表明,经济繁荣需要适宜的产权制度,但如果没有政治制度作保障,适宜的产权就无法建立和正常运行。形式上的民主和市场经济并不必然带来经济繁荣,经济繁荣很大程度上取决于权力如何运作和政府的类型。阿根廷的“失败”反映出,无论是普选产生的民主政府还是官僚—威权主义政府,政治家的目标更多是谋求私利。要改变社会激励结构和建立“强化市场型政府”,不仅依赖于公共政策选择,更取决于长期制度安排。一方面要加强政党建设,以在更高层次上代表和协调各集团利益,更根本的是要破解断裂状社会结构,加强培育市民社会,使得国家与社会通过博弈和妥协达成力量均衡和相互制约,最终建立现代制度结构。
[Abstract]:To explore the basic mechanism of long-term and stable economic growth is an important subject in economics. Argentina provides a comparative research paradigm for this purpose. The world economy "the Great Depression" and "World War II" is a watershed in the development of Argentina, after Argentina is a thriving prosperity of the state, accompanied by economic prosperity and political stability; after Argentina fell in the pendulum development cycle, twentieth Century eventually became Argentina's lost century". What is the cause of the paradox of the development of Argentina, the academic circle has a general solution of cultural determinism, attachment theory, political crisis, policy error theory and so on. Through the investigation of the development path of Argentina, we find that the root of the decline of Argentina is that the property rights can not be guaranteed by the political system. Although the private property market transactions and established in the beginning of the founding of the colony, but natural resources and traditional Argentina property to real estate market transactions, directly into the world economic system of export of bulk agricultural products, which resulted in the process of modernization of Argentina economic and political development is not balanced, the establishment of influence the operation of the middle class and the development of modern system. With the development of modernization process, the number and strength of immigrants in Argentina have increased. However, the oligarchs of agriculture and animal husbandry hold the national politics and exclude immigrants, resulting in the separation of political power and economic rights, exacerbating the rule crisis. The oligarchic government tried to bring the emerging middle class into politics by universal suffrage, but unexpectedly brought the underlying people into the political life, forming a social structure of two opposing groups, namely labor group and agricultural and animal husbandry Export Group. The colonial legacy of caudillismo and patronage make civil society are difficult to develop, resulting in civil society to the integration of a large number of Atomic City workers, provides the soil for the people ". As Peron came to power, his populism ideology and the mode of movement and vocational group played a more important role in social split and group conflict. The narrow interests of all groups gradually replaced the common interest and became the dominant society. In a highly politicized society, all groups lack consensus on basic systems, and capture the government as the only way to realize or maintain the interests of the group. The state has become the "grabbing hand" of manipulating redistribution. The "winner takes all" rules of the game to Argentina regime change crisis, frequent unrest of the small middle class army only to seek asylum. The lack of stability is expected to make large-scale nationalization or privatization, refused to acknowledge the debt, junk currency and other short-sighted behavior become rulers used "tricks", and ultimately the formation of "bandits" regime and plundered the dilemma turns on stage. Our research shows that economic prosperity needs a suitable property right system, but if there is no political system to guarantee, the right property right can not be established and normal operation. Formal democracy and market economy do not necessarily bring economic prosperity, and the prosperity of the economy depends largely on how power works and the type of government. The "failure" of Argentina reflects that whether the democratic government produced by universal elections or the bureaucratic - authoritarian government, the goal of politicians is to seek private interests. The change of the social incentive structure and the establishment of "strengthening the market type government" depend not only on the choice of public policy, but also on the long-term institutional arrangement. On the one hand to strengthen the construction of the party, to at a higher level of representation and coordination of the group interests, more fundamental is to crack the fracture shape of social structure, strengthen the cultivation of civil society, the state and society through the game and compromise the balance of power and restrict each other, the eventual establishment of modern system structure.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F178.3
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本文编号：1345461